The nexus between water scarcity and internal conflict is increasingly evident in Africa, where water stress levels have risen by 50% since 1990, and internal conflicts have surged by 550%.
Research highlights how water scarcity exacerbates economic pressures - such as reduced agricultural incomes and rising consumer prices - fueling grievances and unrest. Climate-induced migration further heightens competition and social tensions in urban areas, compounded by weak governance and political exclusion.
This dataset provides a comprehensive view of these dynamics through the water stress index (WSI), which integrates total freshwater withdrawal, total renewable freshwater resources, and environmental flow requirements to assess water demand, availability, and ecosystem needs. It is complemented by data on six types of internal conflicts recorded since 1990, including demonstrations, riots, and strikes, categorized by their organized or spontaneous nature.
Enriched with social, economic, and ethnographic variables, the dataset offers a nuanced perspective on the complex interplay between water scarcity and societal challenges across African countries.
Regional analysis reveals disparities in conflicts across Africa from 1990 to 2017, with North, West, and East Africa most affected, while Central and Southern regions remained stable. Spontaneous protests, comprising 59% of conflicts, were particularly high in North Africa, driven by events like the Arab Spring.
Countries with the highest water stress, particularly in North and East Africa, also experienced the most internal conflicts from 1990 to 2017, with Egypt standing out due to its extreme WSI and high conflict count.
In contrast, West and Southern Africa show greater heterogeneity, as seen in Nigeria and South Africa's high stress and conflict levels compared to their neighbors, Benin and Namibia.
Ethnic Dynamics and Resource Access: Researchers could explore how water scarcity intersects with ethnological data to understand whether certain ethnic groups are disproportionately affected, potentially revealing patterns of systemic inequality or triggers for localized unrest.
Climate Adaptation Pathways: The dataset could inform studies on how countries with similar demographic and environmental profiles have adapted to water stress, helping to identify successful strategies or best practices for mitigating climate-induced tensions.
Resilience Index Development: By combining social, demographic, and economic variables, researchers could design a resilience index to rank countries based on their ability to cope with water scarcity and its potential to incite conflict, offering a tool for targeted interventions.
Water Scarcity Measurement : The analysis uses the FAO multidimensional index to measure water scarcity, as it is among the most comprehensive and suitable for panel studies. However, its application may not fully capture localized nuances and shocks occured since 1990.
Geolocation Limitations : Incorporating geolocation data for conflicts could better link them to local water scarcities. A more micro-level approach would help identify the tipping point at which water stress triggers community tensions.
Temporal Relevance : The dataset spans from 1990 to 2017 and requires updates to reflect current trends, particularly as environmental and social pressures continue to intensify under the impacts of climate change.
